Mathematical Representations of Human Judgment and Decision Making in Military Contexts

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Sun 11/12/2016 - 6:58 pm
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Models of human behavior are essential for simulating military operations and supporting command and control across a variety of environments. These models must be able to represent the range of judgment and decision making strategies actually used by operators: from the naturalistic heuristics to the prescribed strategies from the operators’ training and commanders. This talk introduces a general linear model (GLM) of judgment and decision making that can be constructed to represent both of these descriptive and prescriptive human behaviors. The GLM can represent various strategy types, levels of expertise, time pressure, and incomplete information within a range of environments. Furthermore, its simple algebraic representation allows for potential applications in agent-based modeling, fast-time simulations, and real-time decision support. We first discuss the role that naturalistic heuristics can play in modeling and simulation theory and practice. Then we describe methods of eliciting or fitting operators’ strategies. We conclude by showing how the GLM can be used to describe large variations in human performance in various environments, prescribe new judgment and decision making strategies for better operational performance, and design new decision support methods and tools.

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